CORN

Corn futures are moderately higher this morning, with Dec up 2-3/4 to 3.71-1/2, Mar is up 3 cents to 3.81-1/2, and May is up 3-1/4 to 3.87. Forecasts for cold and wet weather across the upper Midwest this week could still delay harvest activities. Feed demand has been on a nice upswing lately, and last Friday’s Cattle on Feed report showed placements up 10.8% from last year. Cattle weights are already heavy in the first place, and hog weights are near record levels. Premium structure in both markets is encouraging cattle and hog feeders to feed out their animals to high weights. Corn markets were sharply oversold coming into the week and may be attracting some technical buying as well. Dec futures are testing their 10-day moving average resistance level this morning, and a close above would be the first since November 1. Mar and May futures are also testing their 10-day moving average levels, and a close above in Mar would be the first since November 1 and a close above in May would be the first since October 17. The U.S. shipped about 605,000 tons of corn for the week ending November 21 vs 651,000 tons last year and 1.18 million tons for the same week last year. Cumulative corn shipments are running about 7.6 million tons behind last year’s pace. Speculative funds were thought to have sold about 3,000 contracts of corn on Friday.

SOYBEANS

Soybean futures are slightly lower this morning in disappointing price action, with Jan down 2-1/4 to 8.94-3/4, Mar beans are down 2-1/4 to 9.09, and May beans are down 2 cents to 9.23. Weather this week looks good for big growing areas of Brazil, a pressure point on today’s trade. There are also rumors that Chinese buyers bought at least 20 cargoes of Brazilian beans last week due to uncertainty about U.S./China trade negotiations. There does seem to be a bit more optimism about negotiations today. Palm oil prices are at 2-year highs which should support soybeans. Jan beans have fallen lower after a bit of buying on the overnight session. Mar and May futures are showing similar price patterns today though the May contract is making a bearish outside day currently. The U.S. shipped 1.94 million tons of beans for the week ending November 21 vs 1.54 million tons the previous week and 1.12 million tons the same week last year. Cumulative shipments are running about 2.1 million tons ahead of last year’s pace. Speculative funds were thought to have sold about 7,000 contracts of soybeans on Friday.

WHEAT

Wheat markets are higher this morning, with Dec Chi wheat up 11-1/4 to 5.26-1/2, Dec KC wheat is up 5-1/2 to 4.29-1/2, and Dec spring wheat is up 5-1/2 cents to 4.98-1/4. Weather concerns in Europe and the Black Sea are attracting buyers this morning, with excess precipitation in Europe and cold temperatures in the Black Sea. Weather concerns in Australia and Argentina have not changed much and there is talk that slow soybean and corn harvest in the U.S. may reduce winter wheat acreage a bit. Dec Chi wheat is trading at its highest levels today since October 22, Dec KC wheat is breaking to the high end of its recent range and currently at its highest value since November 13. Dec spring wheat held Friday’s lows and may be reversing higher. The U.S. shipped 421,000 tons of wheat for the week ending November 21 vs 463,000 tons the previous week and 288,000 the same week last year. Cumulative shipments are running about 2.2 million tons ahead of last year’s pace. Speculative funds were thought to have bought 5,000 contracts of Chi wheat on Friday.

CATTLE

Cattle markets are higher this morning, with Dec lives up 1.17 to 119.85, Feb lives are up 1.40 to 125.25, and Apr lives are up 1.12 to 125.30. Jan feeders are up 3.15 to 142.42 and Mar feeders are up 3.07 to 142.67. Friday’s Cattle on Feed showed heavy placements as expected, though maybe not quite as heavy as many were expecting. This is likely the major reason for the bounce today, along with a 1.00 rally in cash cattle last week. Beef values have begun to slide, so it will be interesting to see if traders buy lighter-than-expected placements from Friday or if they sell a very heavy placements number. The current premium structure in the cattle markets is encouraging producers to feed cattle to heavy weights which will add to beef production, especially in heavy slaughter environments. Dec live cattle have pushed back through their 10-day moving average level and nearing the recent highs. Feb live cattle are also back through their 10-day moving average resistance level while the Apr lives have tested and so far failed to break through their 20-day moving average resistance level. Jan and Mar feeders are taking back Friday’s losses so far today.

HOGS

Hog markets are mixed this morning, with Dec up 15 cents to 61.37, Feb hogs are down 12 to 67.52, and Apr hogs are down 35 to 73.35. The CME Index is higher today, keeping with its choppy trend lately. Pork values are higher as well though questions about U.S./China trade negotiations are keeping futures prices mixed. The peak production time of year is quickly approaching which may give fundamental traders a reason to buy this pullback soon. Dec hogs have broken through Friday’s highs to end the two day inside session streak. Feb hogs are consolidating near recent lows in an inside session and Apr futures are drifting toward the low end of their recent range. All three nearby contract months are technically oversold.

Author

Carol Tillmann