TFM Midday Update 9-6-2023

CORN

Corn is trading higher near midday after yesterday’s Crop Progress report showed a sharper than expected drop in ratings.
The good to excellent rating fell by 3% to 53% which is the lowest reading since the 2012 drought year. Illinois ratings fell by 10% and Iowa fell by 5%.
Ag Rural has reported that Brazil’s second crop corn is now nearing 88% harvested, while their first corn crop is nearing 13% planted.
Weather forecasts for the next 6 to 10 days are trending cooler for the entire Corn Belt with above average precipitation expected for the western Corn Belt.

November soybeans gapped higher yesterday evening but have moved slightly lower. Soybeans are still trading higher along with soybean meal, while soybean oil is lower.
Yesterday’s crop ratings showed the good to excellent rating for soybeans falling sharply by 5% to 53%. The poor to very poor rating also increased by 3% to 17%. These are the worst ratings since 2012.
Soybean export demand has remained active with another sale yesterday announced of 9.2 mb to unknown destinations. This brings new crop total sales to 526 mb.
Oil World sees Palm oil prices rising by more than 10% in the coming months amid poor production growth. The decline of palm oil production should raise dependence on soybean, sunseed, and rapeseed.

Wheat is trading higher today as global wheat production in countries apart from Russia is seen falling, and as Russia attacked more port cities in Ukraine.
Overnight, Russia sent drones to both the Odesa and Danube River ports delivering three-hour drone strikes which damaged several agricultural and port facilities.
The Australian wheat crop has suffered heat and drought and is now being estimated at just 25.4 mmt which would be down 36% from last year.
SovEcon has raised their estimates for Russian 23/24 wheat exports to 48.6 mmt citing increases in the production estimate.

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