TFM Midday Update 06-21-2023

CORN

Corn is trading significantly higher and has only faded slightly from this morning’s highs after yesterday’s crop progress showed continued deterioration of the crop.
December corn traded at its highest levels in 7 months earlier this morning after crop progress showed good to excellent ratings in corn falling to 55% from 61% last week, far worse than analyst expectations.
The 7-day forecast still looks dry for the I-states and conditions are reportedly the worst since 1988. The NOAA has indicated that 6-15 inches of rain would be needed to move out of drought in eastern Nebraska.
The subsoil moisture in Illinois was revealed to be 85% short to very short, which is 9 points higher than the drought year of 2012.

Soybeans are higher today with support from big gains in soybean meal, but lower soybean oil after the EPA’s biofuel mandate announcement showed lower requirements for the coming years.
Soybean good to excellent ratings fell to 54% from 59% last week and compared to 68% at this time a year ago. The poor to very poor rating for the crop also increased by 3 points to 12%.
The 10-day forecast is dry for the Corn Belt with temperatures higher than average, and Illinois and Michigan have subsoil moisture levels recorded at 83% and 89% respectively.
Soybean inspections were poor for last week at just 6.8 mb, which put total inspections down 4% from a year ago. Brazil is in control of the soybean market now, and their soy sales to China have increased by 40% from a year ago.

US winter wheat harvest is 15% complete vs 8% last week. However, this is behind the average of 20%, as rainfall in the southern Plains is delaying harvest.
Spring wheat was rated 51% good to excellent vs 60% last week (and 59% last year). Winter wheat condition was left unchanged from last week at 38% good to excellent.
Export inspections were delayed until after yesterday’s close. Wheat inspections of 8.7 mb brings total 23/24 inspections to 20 mb (which is down 44% from last year).
The US Dollar Index has moved lower for the day, which is offering some support to wheat, but exports are still a challenge as Russia continues to undercut the market with cheap wheat.

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