TFM Midday Update 6-19-20


  • July up 0.0175 @ 3.3275, September up 0.0125 @ 3.3675, December up 0.015 @ 3.4425
  • Widespread rains expected across most the Corn Belt this weekend
  • China corn prices are at highest levels since 2015 even as China has released large quantities from state reserves
  • Rumors yesterday that China buyers were inquiring about US ethanol
  • July tested 10 and 20-day moving average support levels early in the session but have found solid buyers on the dip
  • Higher trend is still intact, and closes at these levels would look impressive going into the weekend
  • Funds bought about 1,000 contracts yesterday


  • July up 0.05 @ 8.78, August up 0.055 @ 8.78, November up 0.0575 @ 8.8175
  • China plans to accelerate purchases of US farm products
  • Surge in palm oil prices lately
  • China has been probing for US soybean prices
  • July made first close above the 100-day moving average resistance level yesterday since January 17
  • Early test this morning of the 100-day moving average as support
  • Overbought stochastics
  • Funds bought about 2,000 contracts yesterday


  • July CHI down 0.0375 @ 4.7975, July KC up 0.0075 @ 4.2925, July MPLS down 0.0275 @ 5.22
  • Solid harvest progress for winter wheat
  • Hot and dry conditions in Minnesota, South Dakota and North Dakota may further stress spring wheat crop
  • Many of the spring wheat growing areas could miss rains this weekend
  • CHI futures still extending downtrend despite oversold technicals
  • KC futures trying to consolidate near March lows
  • MPLS futures are choppy after a solid jump yesterday
  • Funds sold 4,000 contracts of CHI wheat yesterday


  • June lives down 0.55 @ 95.52, August lives down 0.17 @ 95.92, October lives down 0.17 @ 99.22
  • August feeders up 0.20 @ 133.17, September down 0.15 @ 134.10
  • Beef prices falling quickly
  • Cash cattle markets are drifting lower so far this week
  • Cattle on Feed report this afternoon expected to show On-Feed supply @ 98.7%
  • Very quiet price action ahead of today’s CoF report
  • Live and feeder markets are still within recent consolidation ranges and have not broken nearby support or resistance


  • July down 1.10 @ 48.85, August up 0.07 @ 53.55, October up 0.32 @ 51.50
  • Pork values stabilization, but cash Index still trending lower
  • China is expected to ramp up purchases of US farm products soon, and pork could be a major target
  • Dropping average carcass weights
  • July hogs trading with moderate losses though still within the trading range for the past few days
  • August and October have stayed within choppy, quiet ranges so far this morning


Sam Seid

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